• A recent study published in The Lancet Public Health highlights that immunity from the measles vaccine wanes over time, contributing to an increase in cases among vaccinated individuals in England. 

• Researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine used mathematical modeling to analyze measles transmission data from 2010 to 2019.

• The study examined three scenarios: no waning of immunity, waning based on time since vaccination, and waning starting in 2000. 

• Using data from over 7,500 measles cases, the study found that waning immunity best explained the increase in cases, especially in those aged 15 years and older who had received two doses of the vaccine. 

• The estimated waning rate was 0.039% per year, leading to 83% of onward transmission from vaccinated individuals compared to unvaccinated ones.

• The findings underscore the need for ongoing monitoring of vaccine-induced immunity in near-elimination settings like England, where waning immunity could pose a risk for future outbreaks. 

• Despite the vaccine’s high long-term effectiveness, this slow waning still increases the measles burden.

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