• The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) used a forecasting model based on the average number of females born to women belonging to a specific birth cohort, known as “completed cohort fertility at 50 years of age”.

• The study findings were as follows:

1. The global Total fertility rate (TFR) declined to half from 1950 to 2021 (4.8 to 2.2).

2. 49 countries are predicted to have fertility rates above replacement levels by 2050, while 6 will remain so in 2100.

3. India with a TFR of 1.91 in 2021, was projected to decrease to 1.29 in 2050 and 1.04 in 2100 gradually.

• Projections were made with alternative scenarios and the TFR was reported as (for India):

1. Meeting the SDG target of education by 2030- 1.22 by 2050

2. No unmet need for contraception as per the SDG target- 1.20 by 2050

3. Pro-natal policies- 1.49 by 2050

4. Combining all-1.35 by 2050

• The study comes as a warning to the governments to plan their policies accordingly keeping in mind the expected changes in fertility indicators.

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