India has always been associated as the second-most populated country in the world behind its neighbouring country of China. However, that was recently changed in April this year. According to an annual report by the UN Population Fund, it is estimated that India will be slightly ahead of China's population by the middle of this year. India's population is expected to be 1,428 million (142.8 crores), slightly ahead of China's population of 1,425 million.

India would have had an accurate number of its population had the 2021 Census been carried out. The 2021 Census was postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This was the first time in the 150-year history that the census exercise was not conducted on time. The Census Act of 1948 has no legal framework that the census must be carried out every decade. However, delaying the census and relying on projections can have far-reaching effects.

The Long Road to the 16th Population Census

Census is conducted by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India under the Ministry of Home Affairs. India was all set to have its first-ever digital census of a billion-plus population. The central government has allocated a budget of ₹8754.23 crores. A pre-test exercise of the digital census was successfully carried out in 2019. The mobilization of 3.3 enumerators, training of trainers, update of mobile applications, and other preparations to kickstart the digital census in April were in full swing. However, the sudden COVID-19 outbreak kept everything at a standstill. The restoration of normal activities began in the middle of 2022. However, there are still no signs of the nationwide exercise.

The census is a two-step process. The first step involves house-listing and numbering and the second step is the actual counting of people. The counting of people (known as enumeration) is typically done in February. The earliest it can be done is February 2024. However, there are reports that the census will be done after the Lok Sabha 2024 elections. The delay would add up to more than 12 years, which will have consequences of its own.

The census was only delayed during World War II, India-China War, and the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1941, 1961, and 1971 respectively. The COVID-19 pandemic did present a unique set of challenges concerning its high infectivity. However, India still went ahead with the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Bihar, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, and Punjab. Even though the Indian census is vast, the pandemic was not a limiting factor for other countries. USA, UK, and China carried out their census during the pandemic itself. It was the first digital census for the USA as well. 

How a Delayed Census is Affecting the Indian Population?

Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, the first home minister of India, had quoted the census to be "no longer a mere counting or the head; it involves extraction of information which plays a vital role in the determination of many of our administrative policies."

The United Nations has defined census as "the total process of collecting, compiling, and publishing demographic, economic, and social data pertaining, at a specified time or times to all persons in a country or delimited territory."

The above-mentioned statements establish the importance of the census. The census is the primary source of basic national population data. It is a base benchmark for population studies. Therefore, not knowing the actual population and relying on decade-old data is a big issue. The estimates provided by this data can also be far from reality. The importance of the census is not limited only to the population studies. The utility of census ranges from administration, social and economic data, policy-making, research purposes, business industry, planning, and civil registration, to even as a frame for sample surveys. The NITI Aayog uses census data for the distribution of the population by age, sex, and rural and urban regions to analyse consumer demand. The census data is also useful in estimating national income. One of the most important utilizations of census data is for the formulation of policies on health, education, food, etc. 

Resource allocation for a government scheme or program is based on census data. Therefore, many beneficiaries are missed out on the government’s Public Distribution System (PDS). The unavailability of characteristics of the population disrupts the policies related to important issues like migration, public health, and public health infrastructure.

Can the Delay in the Census be a Blessing in Disguise?

The only positive coming out of the delay in the census is that the situation can be used for re-examining the instruments. There would be many challenges considering the mixed mode of data collection. The mobile apps developed for data collection could use some refinement. The Census Management and Monitoring System (CMMS) Portal used for monitoring the census progress can be re-examined. The questionnaire can be re-examined as well. The questions for the 2021 Census have been increased to 31 which includes some interesting questions on whether a family has access to a mobile, smartphone, scooter, motorcycle, or car.

Conclusion

The elements of a census include stages like enumeration, data processing, analysis, dissemination of results, and evaluation. The procedure can be very extensive and long. Therefore, efforts must be made to kickstart the 2021 Census. The delay can impact updating the various important indicators related to housing, employment, migration, literacy, and mortality. The procedure should not be rushed, but there should at least be an official word on the status of the exercise. At the end of the day, a census should be a proper perspective of society. 

References

1.     Narayan MK. A Treatise on Indian Censuses Since 1981 [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2023 Jul 4]. Available from: https://censusindia.gov.in/ebook/Com_Eng/mobile/index.html#p=667

2.     Banerjee T. India’s population census postponed again. what does the delay mean? [Internet]. India Today; 2023 [cited 2023 Jul 4]. Available from: https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/india-population-census-postponed-again-what-does-the-delay-mean-2319535-2023-01-10

3.     Kumar D. Census exercise likely after Lok Sabha polls, look at some probable questions [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2023 Jul 4]. Available from: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/census-exercise-likely-after-lok-sabha-polls-2024-internet-access-cereals-among-probable-questions-11685278491636.html